Answer
Your 10th-house lord sits in the 11th house of gains, which is one of the more supportive placements for income growth through work — but it grows through networks and reputation rather than through a single dramatic jump. With Kanya Lagna and Anuradha Nakshatra, your chart does its best work where the structure is clear and the people are reliable.
You are running a Shukra major period with a Budha sub-period. Budha rules your work house, so this stretch does favour a change of role, and it favours a place where communication, systems and analysis are what you are paid for. The Shukra background tends to reward a stable, pleasant working environment over a chaotic one.
Taken together, the chart leans towards the offer where the work is structured and the team is dependable, not necessarily the safer brand name. If the startup is the one where your specific analytical work is central and the founders communicate clearly, the placements do not argue against it. Read the two offers on that axis rather than on risk alone.
A supportive stretch for signing and starting sits in the coming Budha sub-period rather than at the very end of it, so there is no need to rush a decision by a particular date.
Follow-up in the same conversation
“What if the startup pays 30% more but has no fixed role?”
An undefined role is the part that argues against it for your chart. Budha ruling your 10th house wants a defined scope; a role that shifts every month tends to scatter that strength, and the extra pay does not compensate for it in the long run. If you take it, ask for the scope in writing before you join, and a review point at three months. That single change is what would make the higher-paying option workable rather than draining.